Neutrino Mass WG Telecon

Call 3 - August 28

Updates on forecasting efforts - questions on efforts

Plots for S4 meeting

Call 2 - August 23

Agenda for call:

- Theory/pheno discussion: how can science book treatment be improved / added to but also shortened? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.02743.pdf

- Forecasting: any updates or questions?

- Plans for meeting slides.

Call 1

Agenda for call:

0) general charge

1) discussion of plan

2) feedback?

3) volunteers for forecasting

Input for forecasts (will later have a link from Tom Crawford that will be maintained with up-to-date info):

• This is the link. For now it basically says what is stated below, but it will be updated if/when things change.

As a starting point for forecasts, for the large aperture wide-field survey let's go with the numbers from the CDT (Table 1 from https://www.nsf.gov/mps/ast/aaac/cmb_s4/report/CMBS4_final_report_NL.pdf). For the small-area (r-focused) survey, things are not quite settled.

That means (via Tom Crawford and Matt Hasselfield): area of sky: 40% of the full sky frequencies: 40 90 150 220 270 map depths (T, in units of uK-arcmin): 5.6 1.35 1.81 9.1 17.1 [assumed detector effort in physical det-yrs]: 24268 349455 349455 124251 124251

For beams, baseline would be to assume a diffraction-limited 6m telescope. To be concrete, let's say a 1.4' beam at 150 GHz that then scales as (1/freq).

To include the effects of atmosphere and 1/f, the recommendation is to use the ell scaling at https://cmb-s4.org/CMB-S4workshops/index.php/Update_on_Neff_Forecasts. That means putting in a knee at ell=3400 in TT and at 340 in EE (and presumably BB):

NlTT= N0TT(1+ (l /3400)-4.7)

NlEE= N0EE(1+ (l /340)-4.7)

Neutrino Mass Analysis Working Group Plan Through December 2018

Outline of Science Chapter

To be modeled off of the Science Book chapter, with updates and some new ingredients

• Brief Intro

• CMB Lensing / forecasting

    Goals: 

   -Add updates with new noise levels

   -What can we say about CMB lensing vs RSD, weak lensing, Lyman-alpha, cluster abundance?

   -Add discussion of systematics and why the measurement should be robust

   -Expand on tau limitation. What you actually need to know about foregrounds and noise given the tau limits. Options for improving tau?

   -Discuss model independence with cross-correlations

   -Discuss influence of priors on conclusions about hierarchy, mass scale

• Additional CMB - S4 probes

    Goals:

   - Add cluster based forecasts, add cross-correlation based forecasts

• S4 constraints in context with lab experiments and neutrino model-building

   Goals: 

   -Include input from neutrino phenomenologists and experimentalists

   -Potentially add: updates regarding Miniboone results? Updates regarding stronger hints of Normal Hierarchy or delta?

   -Detection scenarios: expand on Section 3.5 and Table 3-2 in Science Book

   -Discussion of how Mnu constraints inform model building

To-do before September Meeting:

-Preliminary forecasts on neutrino mass for each key observable

-Have conclusions in hand OR identify specific outstanding issues for what we can say about CMB lensing vs other methods

-Tau limitation and prospects for improvement

-Impact of priors

-Summary of content for context with lab experiments / model-building for comments

To-do by November:

-Draft of chapter available for circulation